By Joao Cunha
The New England Patriots have been the gold standard in the NFL for nearly 2 decades. Belichick and Brady combined to win 15 AFC East titles, make 11 AFC Championship games, reach 7 Super Bowls, and win 5 of them. In the salary cap era no less. Where free agents ;eave., and teams who win titles are supposed to get weaker not maintain itself at the top. Yet this team has with the ethos of the “Patriot Way”, which has several keys to success.
- Sell high on p[ayers: Get rid of a player before he starts to decline. Examples include Lawerence Milloy, Richard Seymour, Chandler Jones, Deion Branch.
- Find players who are undervalued by other teams and get them into the system. The Pats are adept at doing this with WR’s especially. Chris Hogan, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola.
- Take risky players with a bunch of talent, and try to reform their career. Since the system and control are so great the Pats can take chances on outcasts, malcontents on other teams. Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Aqib Talib had very productive stints with the Pats after being problems with the Bengals, Raiders, and Bucs respectively.
- Taking chances on big free agents or trades on short term deals. This isn’t as common but the Pats have pulled off some big moves. Brandon Cooks this year, and Darrelle Revis a few years ago. Revis helped the Pats win a Super Bowl.
- Stockpile draft picks for flexiblity. The Pats in the past always traded for more picks to stockpile so they can have assets to trade in the future.
- No distractions! This might be the biggest part of being a Patriot, you cannot be a distraction to the team’s primary goal of winning. That comes before everything. No player or coach is above the team and if you act like you are they show you the door.
These 6 basic rules allowed the Pats to build a winning culture that overcame the “parity” in the NFL. The story by Seth Wickersham today, seems to violate many of the virtues of the Patriot way. As even the story being leaked out in the middle of a playoff run, is something that doesn’t happen to the Pats. The story itself was very critical of Brady’s relationship with Guerrero his TB12 instructor, and made Tom Brady seem like a very petty individual. His treatment of Jimmy G was almost non-existent and his refusal to teach Jimmy G anything seems to be atypical of the image portrayed to the media of a “good” teammate who cares about winning. It revealed that Brady like Montana, and Favre before him were icing out their potential heirs to their throne. Brady never wanted Jimmy G to stay and after the young QB refused to sign an extension, Belichick was forced to trade him for a second-round pick. But that is only part of the story.
First why was this story allowed to get out? It wouldn’t come from Brady’s camp as he not only won the power struggle but the article seemed to take many shots at him. It might be from Jimmy G, or the trainers who didn’t like Guerrero. However the most likely person, the one man who would gain the most from this would be Bill Belichick himself. Think about it. Why would a story get out about how Kraft stopped Belichek from keeping Jimmy G in the middle of a playoff run? How would this story benefit anyone other than the Pats coach?
This report would show that Belichick was ready to move off Brady sooner than people think. It would suggest that Brady knew this and twisted Kraft’s arm to go against his best interests and support Brady. While this is understandable as Brady and Kraft have a great relationship, it was a move that is the antithesis of the Patriot way. And Belichick wanted everyone to know that he had no say in this decision, that he wanted Jimmy G to stay, that he wanted to keep New England competing for Super Bowls even after he left. He was not a person who had a soft spot for players, he is ruthless and wanted people to know that Brady was no exception. So he had every incentive especially after Jimmy G played well to let this get out. And in typical Patriots fashion even bad news, was at a good time. It is after all the team’s bye week.
I don’t think the immediate future of the Pats will be affected, they should still reach the Super Bowl, they could still win another championship. However this season might be the swansong of their dynasty. Although Tom Brady is playing at an MVP level this season, he has been average over the last month of the season. in addition, there is a precedent of aging QB’s playing well in their late 30’s and falling off near or at 40 years old. Favre had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009 with the Vikings, then fell off a statistical cliff in 2010. Peyton Manning threw for over 35 touchdowns in 2014, yet in the 2015 season he had to be carried to a Super Bowl as he threw more interceptions than touchdowns. So Brady won’t be able to perform at his level for longer than 1-2 seasons max even with his training regiment. But the uncertain future surrounding the Pats leadership and thg trading away a potential star QB is far more damaging than a declining Brady.
With these revelations and the power struggle that Tom Brady has won, will Bill Belichek even stay? It’s no longer a slam-dunk anymore, as he is seething at Kraft overruling him. In addition there is a good chance that both Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels and Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia will be hired as head coaches in the NFL. So New England might not have any of their top coordinators, and their head coach/GM in one off-season. Which would be a disaster and this could destroy the stability of this franchise. A stability that is unrivaled in the NFL and gives the Pats systematic advantages over almost all NFL teams. Most of their trades are with teams with worse GM, scouts, coaches who are usually more desperate than the Pats are. As a result they get better trades than most of the league because of their stability alone. Yet with the potential loss of talented coordinators, and maybe even Belichek this advantage could be lessened or even erased. However their future was hampered the moment they decided to trade Jimmy G to the 49ers for a second round pick.
If NFL history has taught us anything, it is that no team should EVER trade their future franchise QB for a draft pick. Jimmy G has not lost an NFL start, he transformed the Niners from a 1-10 team into a 6-10 one within a two month span. He is going to be a special QB, no one in the Patriots’s organization is surprised by his success. Yet the team due to an impulsive owner, and a QB who had way too much power sold the future of a franchise for a second-round pick. There has been precedent where teams had successions plans at QB before, and none of the examples I am going to list did what the Pats despite having incredible QB’s.
1990’s: 49ers lose a tough NFC Championship game and they trade Joe Montana to the Chiefs and kept younger Steve Young. Joe Montana never made a Super Bowl again, and Steve Young led the Niners to their 5th Super Bowl victory and extended their championship window for at least 8-9 seasons. The right decision was made.
2008: The Packers lost a brutal NFC Championship game and Favre apparently retired. (This would repeat itself 3 more times…) Favre then changed his mind, and the Packers instead of allowing him to stay; traded him to the Jets. Favre got to an NFC championship game with the Vikings but failed to win a Super Bowl. Rodgers began what would be the finest stretch of QB play ever seen and led Green Bay to a Super Bowl in 2010-11 season. Green Bay made the right decision.
2012: Peyton Manning gets injured, and the Colts finish 2-14 and get the first overall pick. Instead of taking Luck and keep Manning as a a starter or trading the pick for more picks or players, the Colts for maybe the last time in the decade made a smart decision. They cut ties with Peyton Manning and drafted Luck number one overall, The Colts immediately improved to 11-5 and within 2 years beat Manning in a playoff game to reach the AFC championship game. However because the GM was terrible and Irsay may be one of the 5 worst owners in the league, they somehow couldn’t put a decent offensive line around Luck and he’s been injured for the last 2 years. Yet if he returns to health, he could still give 7-8 years of quality play to the Colts. As for Peyton Manning he won a Super Bowl being carried by a historic defense, won an MVP, yet not even he could have saved the Colts from sinking into a ship. Despite the fact that Manning won a Super Bowl, the only reason the Colts are a decent NFL job is because of Luck so that makes this the right decision.
Again in all 3 choices the younger QB was taken over a future HOF and all 3 times it worked well, even the Colts if they fix the team will benefit in the long term. The Pats by trading Jimmy G could be QB hell for the next 15-20 years trying to search for a QB. Like these teams…
Jets: Joe Namath retired in the mid 1970’s, they STILL haven’t found an adequate replacement.
Bills: Jim Kelly retired in the 1990’s and no replacement has been found since.
Dolphins: Dan Marino retired in 2000 and once again no replacement has been found.
Raiders: Gannon was injured and done by 2004, it took the Raiders 11 years until they drafted Derek Carr. (This is one of the better scenarios)
Broncos: It took nearly 15 years between Elway’s retirement until Peyton Manning fell into their lap.
Giants: it took 11 years for the Giants to replace Phil Simms with Eli Manning.
Jaguars: THIS TEAM HASN’T FOUND A GOOD QB SINCE MARK BRUNELL, BLAKE FREAKING BORTLES IS STARTING A PLAYOFF GAME FFS.
Browns: Since Bernie Kosar left the Browns in the 1990’s, the team was moved to Baltimore, came back, picked a QB number one in the draft (Tim Couch), finished 0-16, and still haven’t found his replacement.
Rams: It took them 15 years to properly replace Kurt Warner with Jared Goff..
Steelers: Even this team with all its success took nearly 25 years to replace Terry Bradshaw with Big Ben.
Bengals: Took them nearly 2 decades to find a replacement for Boomer Esaison, in Carson Palmer.
Texans: They waited 15 years to get lucky and draft Watson.
49ers: Took them 20 years to finally replace Steve Young with someone like Jimmy G.
Vikings: Since they have never had a replacement for Fran Tarkenton, they just keep signing veteran QB’s for nearly 40 years.
Cardinals: They just keep signing veteran castoffs and sometimes they get lucky (Warner, Palmer)
Seahawks: Took them 10 years to propely replace their QB Dave Krieg and find Matt Hasselback.
Saints: It took them how long until they found Drew Brees again???? Until 2006 this team’s best quarterback was Archie Manning a man who never had a winning record for the Saints.
Bucs: Serious question: Has this team EVER had an elite QB????
Falcons: Until Mike Vick and Matt Ryan, they had mostly average QB’s.
Chiefs:Since Len Dawson retired, they have signed veterans who are ok-good. (Trent Green. Alex Smith, Joe Montana, Matt Cassel) yet never found a true long term answer.
Eagles: They have actually replaced their Quarterbacks kind of quickly in Philly. Jaworski, Randall Cunnigham, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick, Nick Foles, and now Carson Wentz. Seriously that’s not too bad of a list over the last 30 plus years considering all the terrible QB’s.
Washington: The best QB this team has had over the last 25 years is Kirk Cousins. That says it all.
Carolina: Um. Cam Newton and maybe Delhomme?
Lions: They waited 50 years until Matt Stafford arrived, he was the second Lions QB to make a Pro-Bowl since.
Bears: Their best QB since McMahon has been smokin’ Jay Cutler, I wish I was kidding.
Chargers: It took them nearly 2 decades to replace Dan Fouts with Brees.
Colts: It took them about 30 years to go from Johnny Unitas to Peyton Manning.
Packers: They took over 25 years to replace Bart Starr with Favre.
Cowboys: I would argue they are one of the luckiest team as far as Quarterbacks go. You go from Don Meredith to Roger Staubach to Danny White to Troy Aikman to Tony Romo to Dak Prescott. Seriously that’s 50 years worth of good to all-time great QB play.
Ravens: Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer are their 2 most successful QB’s. Nothing more needs to be said.
Titans: With Jeff Fisher as coach for so long, we have no idea if they couldn’t have had more good QB’s.
Patriots; Until Bledsoe, New England was the most cursed team at QB. Seriously! Now they have been on a 25-year run of good to otherworldly QB play.
There are very few franchises who didn’t have long gaps in finding QB’s.
Packers: Favre to Rodgers
Cowboys: Aikman then a 7 year wait to Romo then to Dak
Colts: Peyton Manning to Luck
Chargers: Brees to Rivers
Patriots: Bledsoe to Brady
And that’s about it. New England by thinking about the present. and Brady’s desires has cost them a chance of possibly being even more dominant. They didn’t sell high, instead they allowed Brady to dictate his exit at the expense of the team. This goes against the very fabric of the Patriot-way and as NFL history has shown, if you don’t have a succession plan at QB you will become an irrelevant force.
Kraft will rue the day he sided with Brady, as Quarterbacks are rare commodities. In all likelihood they won’t find a proper replacement for Brady for at least 10 years. 10 years that would most likely have been successful with Jimmy G at the helm. Kraft may be addicted to winning, but that addiction could have long term consequences. Short-term success is not the Patriot way, it is not Belichick’s way, it may work this season but is it worth it? The long term health of the organization is in doubt for the first time since Bledsoe’s injury, at that time Brady was there to change the course of history. For Kraft there is no magic bullet that can save him now. He better enjoy all his success now, because it may not last long. He chose a player above the team, and that will be the most fitting end to the Patriots dynasty. They are about to fall because they fell too much in love with their own player, they got too sentimental. By betraying their ethos, the Pats become what they dread: just an ordinary team.
realtakesite 